Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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First American Financial Corporation (FAF)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Insurance - SpecialtySector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$47.14 - $74.36$59.59
Multi-Stage$66.76 - $73.12$69.88
Blended Fair Value$64.74
Current Price$64.24
Upside0.77%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS3.21%9.39%2.122.082.092.051.911.811.721.531.261.04
YoY Growth--1.89%-0.18%1.88%7.22%5.43%5.58%12.06%21.09%21.21%20.66%
Dividend Yield--3.23%3.48%3.75%3.16%3.37%4.27%3.18%2.61%3.22%2.74%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)482.30
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)222.50
(=) Cash Retained (M)259.80
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)96.4660.2936.17
Cash Retained (M)259.80259.80259.80
(-) Cash Required (M)-96.46-60.29-36.17
(=) Excess Retained (M)163.34199.51223.63
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)104.05104.05104.05
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.571.922.15
LTM Dividend per Share2.142.142.14
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.571.922.15
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.714.064.29
WACC / Discount Rate8.65%8.65%8.65%
Growth Rate0.72%1.72%2.72%
Fair Value$47.14$59.59$74.36
Upside / Downside-26.62%-7.23%15.75%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)482.30490.62499.08507.69516.44525.35541.11
Payout Ratio46.13%54.91%63.68%72.45%81.23%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)222.50269.38317.81367.84419.49472.81500.53

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.65%8.65%8.65%
Growth Rate0.72%1.72%2.72%
Year 1 PV (M)245.50247.94250.38
Year 2 PV (M)263.97269.23274.55
Year 3 PV (M)278.43286.81295.35
Year 4 PV (M)289.38301.05313.06
Year 5 PV (M)297.26312.31327.96
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,571.495,853.616,147.04
Equity Value (M)6,946.037,270.947,608.34
Shares Outstanding (M)104.05104.05104.05
Fair Value$66.76$69.88$73.12
Upside / Downside3.92%8.78%13.83%

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