Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

Fundamentals

Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

Valuations

Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

Miscellaneous

Indicators Charts WACC Beta Predictability

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Ford Motor Company 6.500% Notes (F-PD)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - ManufacturersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$24.14 - $57.01$35.57
Multi-Stage$28.50 - $31.22$29.84
Blended Fair Value$32.70
Current Price$11.96
Upside173.43%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS5.47%4.79%0.781.240.500.100.150.600.720.640.840.59
YoY Growth---37.58%148.63%398.51%-32.38%-75.05%-17.76%12.42%-23.46%41.85%21.93%
Dividend Yield--7.74%9.36%3.97%0.59%1.21%12.32%8.06%5.81%7.22%4.39%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)4,706.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,986.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,720.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)941.20588.25352.95
Cash Retained (M)1,720.001,720.001,720.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-941.20-588.25-352.95
(=) Excess Retained (M)778.801,131.751,367.05
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4,014.634,014.634,014.63
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.190.280.34
LTM Dividend per Share0.740.740.74
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.190.280.34
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.941.031.08
WACC / Discount Rate6.79%6.79%6.79%
Growth Rate2.79%3.79%4.79%
Fair Value$24.14$35.57$57.01
Upside / Downside101.85%197.39%376.67%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)4,706.004,884.585,069.945,262.335,462.035,669.305,839.38
Payout Ratio63.45%68.76%74.07%79.38%84.69%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,986.003,358.673,755.334,177.264,625.805,102.375,401.42

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.79%6.79%6.79%
Growth Rate2.79%3.79%4.79%
Year 1 PV (M)3,114.883,145.183,175.48
Year 2 PV (M)3,229.953,293.093,356.85
Year 3 PV (M)3,332.053,430.243,530.35
Year 4 PV (M)3,422.003,557.123,696.20
Year 5 PV (M)3,500.573,674.193,854.62
PV of Terminal Value (M)97,830.54102,682.57107,725.23
Equity Value (M)114,430.00119,782.40125,338.73
Shares Outstanding (M)4,014.634,014.634,014.63
Fair Value$28.50$29.84$31.22
Upside / Downside138.32%149.47%161.04%

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