Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Exponent, Inc. (EXPO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Consulting ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$49.42 - $138.20$76.78
Multi-Stage$36.98 - $40.36$38.64
Blended Fair Value$57.71
Current Price$67.10
Upside-13.99%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202320222021202120202018201720162016
DPS11.68%16.12%1.131.050.950.840.770.650.530.420.360.30
YoY Growth--7.72%9.76%13.98%8.61%18.72%23.08%24.66%16.26%20.03%19.83%
Dividend Yield--1.46%1.27%0.96%0.77%0.78%0.92%0.91%1.08%1.22%1.20%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)104.84
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)60.88
(=) Cash Retained (M)43.96
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)20.9713.107.86
Cash Retained (M)43.9643.9643.96
(-) Cash Required (M)-20.97-13.10-7.86
(=) Excess Retained (M)22.9930.8536.10
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)51.5951.5951.59
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.450.600.70
LTM Dividend per Share1.181.181.18
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.450.600.70
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.631.781.88
WACC / Discount Rate8.51%8.51%8.51%
Growth Rate5.05%6.05%7.05%
Fair Value$49.42$76.78$138.20
Upside / Downside-26.35%14.43%105.96%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)104.84111.18117.91125.05132.62140.65144.87
Payout Ratio58.07%64.46%70.84%77.23%83.61%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)60.8871.6683.5396.58110.89126.59134.01

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.51%8.51%8.51%
Growth Rate5.05%6.05%7.05%
Year 1 PV (M)65.4266.0466.67
Year 2 PV (M)69.6170.9472.29
Year 3 PV (M)73.4775.5977.75
Year 4 PV (M)77.0179.9983.05
Year 5 PV (M)80.2584.1588.19
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,541.721,616.501,694.17
Equity Value (M)1,907.481,993.212,082.10
Shares Outstanding (M)51.5951.5951.59
Fair Value$36.98$38.64$40.36
Upside / Downside-44.89%-42.42%-39.85%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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