Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Expand Energy Corporation (EXE)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$10.69 - $13.83$12.36
Multi-Stage$28.13 - $31.08$29.58
Blended Fair Value$20.97
Current Price$106.24
Upside-80.27%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%5.19%1.642.065.120.500.000.000.390.770.000.50
YoY Growth---20.33%-59.82%918.49%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-49.73%0.00%-100.00%-49.57%
Dividend Yield--1.47%2.29%6.73%0.58%0.00%0.00%0.91%1.81%0.00%1.16%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)867.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)762.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)105.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)173.40108.3865.03
Cash Retained (M)105.00105.00105.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-173.40-108.38-65.03
(=) Excess Retained (M)-68.40-3.3839.98
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)236.77236.77236.77
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.29-0.010.17
LTM Dividend per Share3.223.223.22
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.29-0.010.17
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.933.203.39
WACC / Discount Rate8.25%8.25%8.25%
Growth Rate-15.04%-14.04%-13.04%
Fair Value$10.69$12.36$13.83
Upside / Downside-89.94%-88.37%-86.98%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)867.00745.26640.61550.66473.34406.88419.08
Payout Ratio87.89%88.31%88.73%89.16%89.58%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)762.00658.15568.44490.95424.01366.19387.65

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.25%8.25%8.25%
Growth Rate-15.04%-14.04%-13.04%
Year 1 PV (M)600.92607.99615.06
Year 2 PV (M)473.88485.10496.45
Year 3 PV (M)373.68387.04400.70
Year 4 PV (M)294.67308.79323.41
Year 5 PV (M)232.36246.36261.03
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,685.314,967.625,263.38
Equity Value (M)6,660.817,002.897,360.03
Shares Outstanding (M)236.77236.77236.77
Fair Value$28.13$29.58$31.08
Upside / Downside-73.52%-72.16%-70.74%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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