Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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ESSA Bancorp, Inc. (ESSA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$61.28 - $307.18$127.70
Multi-Stage$37.32 - $40.83$39.05
Blended Fair Value$83.37
Current Price$18.85
Upside342.31%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS6.72%7.75%0.620.610.550.490.480.450.410.400.390.37
YoY Growth--0.79%11.11%12.33%2.96%6.87%9.05%2.14%2.22%5.67%26.64%
Dividend Yield--3.18%3.07%2.65%2.84%3.19%2.64%2.63%2.57%2.50%2.72%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)14.78
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)5.88
(=) Cash Retained (M)8.91
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2.961.851.11
Cash Retained (M)8.918.918.91
(-) Cash Required (M)-2.96-1.85-1.11
(=) Excess Retained (M)5.957.067.80
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)9.539.539.53
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.620.740.82
LTM Dividend per Share0.620.620.62
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.620.740.82
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.241.361.44
WACC / Discount Rate7.15%7.15%7.15%
Growth Rate5.02%6.02%7.02%
Fair Value$61.28$127.70$307.18
Upside / Downside225.11%577.47%1,529.61%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)14.7815.6716.6217.6218.6819.8020.40
Payout Ratio39.75%49.80%59.85%69.90%79.95%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)5.887.819.9512.3214.9317.8218.87

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.15%7.15%7.15%
Growth Rate5.02%6.02%7.02%
Year 1 PV (M)7.227.297.35
Year 2 PV (M)8.508.668.83
Year 3 PV (M)9.7310.0110.30
Year 4 PV (M)10.9111.3311.76
Year 5 PV (M)12.0412.6213.23
PV of Terminal Value (M)307.24322.15337.63
Equity Value (M)355.63372.06389.10
Shares Outstanding (M)9.539.539.53
Fair Value$37.32$39.05$40.83
Upside / Downside98.00%107.14%116.63%

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