Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Epsilon Energy Ltd. (EPSN)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.21 - $3.31$2.73
Multi-Stage$4.53 - $4.97$4.75
Blended Fair Value$3.74
Current Price$7.38
Upside-49.32%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.250.250.270.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---2.03%-4.46%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.51%4.61%4.96%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)5.88
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)5.40
(=) Cash Retained (M)0.47
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1.180.730.44
Cash Retained (M)0.470.470.47
(-) Cash Required (M)-1.18-0.73-0.44
(=) Excess Retained (M)-0.70-0.260.03
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)22.1222.1222.12
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.03-0.010.00
LTM Dividend per Share0.240.240.24
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.03-0.010.00
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.210.230.25
WACC / Discount Rate7.43%7.43%7.43%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$2.21$2.73$3.31
Upside / Downside-70.06%-62.99%-55.17%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)5.885.825.765.705.655.595.76
Payout Ratio91.92%91.54%91.15%90.77%90.38%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)5.405.335.255.185.105.035.33

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.43%7.43%7.43%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)4.914.965.01
Year 2 PV (M)4.464.554.64
Year 3 PV (M)4.054.184.30
Year 4 PV (M)3.683.833.99
Year 5 PV (M)3.343.523.70
PV of Terminal Value (M)79.8784.0388.36
Equity Value (M)100.31105.06110.00
Shares Outstanding (M)22.1222.1222.12
Fair Value$4.53$4.75$4.97
Upside / Downside-38.55%-35.64%-32.61%

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