Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Embecta Corp. (EMBC)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$11.54 - $16.66$14.03
Multi-Stage$19.12 - $20.99$20.04
Blended Fair Value$17.04
Current Price$14.11
Upside20.73%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019
DPS0.00%0.00%0.600.590.590.150.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--1.45%0.29%300.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--4.23%2.85%3.10%0.58%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)94.70
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)35.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)59.70
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)18.9411.847.10
Cash Retained (M)59.7059.7059.70
(-) Cash Required (M)-18.94-11.84-7.10
(=) Excess Retained (M)40.7647.8652.60
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)58.6558.6558.65
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.690.820.90
LTM Dividend per Share0.600.600.60
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.690.820.90
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.291.411.49
WACC / Discount Rate8.97%8.97%8.97%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$11.54$14.03$16.66
Upside / Downside-18.20%-0.55%18.04%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)94.7093.7592.8291.8990.9790.0692.76
Payout Ratio36.96%47.57%58.18%68.78%79.39%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)35.0044.6054.0063.2072.2281.0585.80

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.97%8.97%8.97%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)40.5140.9341.34
Year 2 PV (M)44.5645.4746.40
Year 3 PV (M)47.3848.8550.34
Year 4 PV (M)49.1951.2353.33
Year 5 PV (M)50.1552.7655.48
PV of Terminal Value (M)889.68936.01984.24
Equity Value (M)1,121.471,175.241,231.13
Shares Outstanding (M)58.6558.6558.65
Fair Value$19.12$20.04$20.99
Upside / Downside35.51%42.01%48.76%

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