Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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PT Elnusa Tbk (ELSA.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas Equipment & ServicesSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3,984.28 - $16,544.51$10,170.37
Multi-Stage$2,050.48 - $2,238.88$2,142.97
Blended Fair Value$6,156.67
Current Price$468.00
Upside1,215.53%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS23.84%5.29%27.5725.907.4510.2412.219.465.084.3410.4539.75
YoY Growth--6.45%247.65%-27.23%-16.15%29.01%86.34%16.99%-58.44%-73.72%141.32%
Dividend Yield--6.53%6.82%2.39%3.48%3.55%6.27%1.34%0.93%2.69%11.94%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)607,166.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)480,141.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)127,025.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)121,433.2075,895.7545,537.45
Cash Retained (M)127,025.00127,025.00127,025.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-121,433.20-75,895.75-45,537.45
(=) Excess Retained (M)5,591.8051,129.2581,487.55
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)7,298.507,298.507,298.50
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.777.0111.16
LTM Dividend per Share65.7965.7965.79
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.777.0111.16
(=) Adjusted Dividend66.5572.7976.95
WACC / Discount Rate7.26%7.26%7.26%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$3,984.28$10,170.37$16,544.51
Upside / Downside751.34%2,073.16%3,435.15%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)607,166.00646,631.79688,662.86733,425.94781,098.63831,870.04856,826.14
Payout Ratio79.08%81.26%83.45%85.63%87.82%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)480,141.00525,473.85574,671.38628,044.47685,928.06748,683.04792,564.18

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.26%7.26%7.26%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)485,296.41489,896.38494,496.35
Year 2 PV (M)490,152.83499,488.86508,912.97
Year 3 PV (M)494,718.67508,920.27523,391.08
Year 4 PV (M)499,002.19518,192.40537,930.87
Year 5 PV (M)503,011.41527,307.05552,532.54
PV of Terminal Value (M)12,493,262.9413,096,692.2113,723,216.14
Equity Value (M)14,965,444.4515,640,497.1716,340,479.94
Shares Outstanding (M)7,298.507,298.507,298.50
Fair Value$2,050.48$2,142.97$2,238.88
Upside / Downside338.14%357.90%378.39%

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