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Definitive Analysis

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VAALCO Energy, Inc. (EGY)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6.16 - $15.53$9.27
Multi-Stage$4.63 - $5.04$4.83
Blended Fair Value$7.05
Current Price$4.02
Upside75.31%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.250.260.090.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---2.08%186.21%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--6.71%3.57%1.99%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)28.46
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)26.38
(=) Cash Retained (M)2.08
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)5.693.562.13
Cash Retained (M)2.082.082.08
(-) Cash Required (M)-5.69-3.56-2.13
(=) Excess Retained (M)-3.61-1.47-0.05
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)103.96103.96103.96
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.03-0.010.00
LTM Dividend per Share0.250.250.25
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.03-0.010.00
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.220.240.25
WACC / Discount Rate9.25%9.25%9.25%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$6.16$9.27$15.53
Upside / Downside53.16%130.53%286.33%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)28.4630.3132.2834.3836.6138.9940.16
Payout Ratio92.67%92.14%91.60%91.07%90.53%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)26.3827.9329.5731.3133.1535.0937.15

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.25%9.25%9.25%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)25.3225.5625.80
Year 2 PV (M)24.3124.7725.24
Year 3 PV (M)23.3424.0124.69
Year 4 PV (M)22.4023.2724.15
Year 5 PV (M)21.5122.5523.62
PV of Terminal Value (M)364.12381.71399.97
Equity Value (M)481.01501.87523.48
Shares Outstanding (M)103.96103.96103.96
Fair Value$4.63$4.83$5.04
Upside / Downside15.10%20.09%25.26%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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