Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Endeavour Group Limited (EDV.AX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Beverages - Wineries & DistilleriesSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$58.33 - $104.26$97.71
Multi-Stage$16.99 - $18.58$17.77
Blended Fair Value$57.74
Current Price$4.01
Upside1,339.90%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20252024202320222021202020192018
DPS17.92%0.00%0.200.220.220.200.030.090.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---8.21%-1.02%12.89%571.15%-66.88%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--4.99%4.39%3.49%2.58%0.46%1.46%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)938.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)748.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)190.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)187.60117.2570.35
Cash Retained (M)190.00190.00190.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-187.60-117.25-70.35
(=) Excess Retained (M)2.4072.75119.65
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,789.181,789.181,789.18
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.000.040.07
LTM Dividend per Share0.420.420.42
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.000.040.07
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.420.460.48
WACC / Discount Rate6.26%6.26%6.26%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$58.33$97.71$104.26
Upside / Downside1,354.63%2,336.64%2,500.07%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)938.00998.971,063.901,133.061,206.711,285.141,323.70
Payout Ratio79.74%81.80%83.85%85.90%87.95%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)748.00817.11892.05973.271,061.281,156.631,224.42

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.26%6.26%6.26%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)761.76768.98776.20
Year 2 PV (M)775.29790.06804.96
Year 3 PV (M)788.59811.22834.29
Year 4 PV (M)801.65832.48864.19
Year 5 PV (M)814.49853.83894.68
PV of Terminal Value (M)26,460.4627,738.5129,065.47
Equity Value (M)30,402.2531,795.0933,239.80
Shares Outstanding (M)1,789.181,789.181,789.18
Fair Value$16.99$17.77$18.58
Upside / Downside323.75%343.16%363.30%

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