Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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A.P. Møller - Mærsk A/S (DP4B.DE)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Marine ShippingSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$32,436.64 - $87,321.97$81,832.51
Multi-Stage$12,774.57 - $13,983.60$13,367.96
Blended Fair Value$47,600.24
Current Price$1,872.92
Upside2,441.50%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS23.23%1.66%85.15694.77437.4064.9727.4729.9633.0329.0060.88392.30
YoY Growth---87.74%58.84%573.25%136.51%-8.32%-9.28%13.88%-52.36%-84.48%442.97%
Dividend Yield--4.90%55.91%25.20%2.21%1.96%3.70%2.68%2.14%5.20%31.40%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)6,882.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,547.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)4,335.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,376.40860.25516.15
Cash Retained (M)4,335.004,335.004,335.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,376.40-860.25-516.15
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,958.603,474.753,818.85
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)15.6515.6515.65
(=) Excess Retained per Share189.00221.97243.95
LTM Dividend per Share162.71162.71162.71
(+) Excess Retained per Share189.00221.97243.95
(=) Adjusted Dividend351.71384.68406.66
WACC / Discount Rate6.51%6.51%6.51%
Growth Rate5.37%6.37%7.37%
Fair Value$32,436.64$81,832.51$87,321.97
Upside / Downside1,631.88%4,269.25%4,562.34%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)6,882.007,320.047,785.968,281.548,808.669,369.349,650.42
Payout Ratio37.01%47.61%58.21%68.80%79.40%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,547.003,484.904,531.885,698.026,994.258,432.408,926.64

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.51%6.51%6.51%
Growth Rate5.37%6.37%7.37%
Year 1 PV (M)3,241.223,271.983,302.74
Year 2 PV (M)3,920.253,995.014,070.48
Year 3 PV (M)4,584.344,716.114,850.38
Year 4 PV (M)5,233.735,435.265,642.56
Year 5 PV (M)5,868.666,152.496,447.19
PV of Terminal Value (M)177,125.04185,691.42194,586.07
Equity Value (M)199,973.23209,262.26218,899.43
Shares Outstanding (M)15.6515.6515.65
Fair Value$12,774.57$13,367.96$13,983.60
Upside / Downside582.07%613.75%646.62%

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