Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

Fundamentals

Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Industry

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PT Delta Djakarta Tbk (DLTA.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Beverages - AlcoholicSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,011.12 - $1,410.26$1,210.51
Multi-Stage$3,263.60 - $3,599.12$3,427.94
Blended Fair Value$2,319.23
Current Price$1,995.00
Upside16.25%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-10.09%4.48%280.34324.24299.48249.50389.32477.27259.37179.69119.94195.94
YoY Growth---13.54%8.27%20.03%-35.91%-18.43%84.01%44.35%49.81%-38.78%8.32%
Dividend Yield--13.61%9.74%7.45%6.53%10.14%10.05%3.63%3.46%2.73%3.63%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)141,742.05
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)140,452.52
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,289.53
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)28,348.4117,717.7610,630.65
Cash Retained (M)1,289.531,289.531,289.53
(-) Cash Required (M)-28,348.41-17,717.76-10,630.65
(=) Excess Retained (M)-27,058.88-16,428.23-9,341.12
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)800.66800.66800.66
(=) Excess Retained per Share-33.80-20.52-11.67
LTM Dividend per Share175.42175.42175.42
(+) Excess Retained per Share-33.80-20.52-11.67
(=) Adjusted Dividend141.63154.90163.75
WACC / Discount Rate6.25%6.25%6.25%
Growth Rate-6.80%-5.80%-4.80%
Fair Value$1,011.12$1,210.51$1,410.26
Upside / Downside-49.32%-39.32%-29.31%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)141,742.05133,519.99125,774.86118,479.01111,606.37105,132.40108,286.37
Payout Ratio99.09%97.27%95.45%93.64%91.82%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)140,452.52129,877.81120,057.31110,939.11102,474.7994,619.16100,164.89

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.25%6.25%6.25%
Growth Rate-6.80%-5.80%-4.80%
Year 1 PV (M)120,936.35122,233.96123,531.57
Year 2 PV (M)104,095.61106,341.42108,611.20
Year 3 PV (M)89,567.4992,481.6395,458.30
Year 4 PV (M)77,037.9380,397.9083,866.60
Year 5 PV (M)66,235.1569,865.6573,653.62
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,155,160.822,273,289.862,396,542.96
Equity Value (M)2,613,033.352,744,610.412,881,664.25
Shares Outstanding (M)800.66800.66800.66
Fair Value$3,263.60$3,427.94$3,599.12
Upside / Downside63.59%71.83%80.41%

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