Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Dine Brands Global, Inc. (DIN)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: RestaurantsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$12.23 - $16.75$14.52
Multi-Stage$24.01 - $26.28$25.12
Blended Fair Value$19.82
Current Price$24.72
Upside-19.82%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-7.75%-3.06%2.122.152.080.001.623.173.464.724.564.48
YoY Growth---1.30%3.09%0.00%-100.00%-48.92%-8.34%-26.74%3.50%1.91%54.83%
Dividend Yield--9.10%4.63%3.08%0.00%1.80%11.06%3.75%7.20%8.39%4.79%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)34.51
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)31.40
(=) Cash Retained (M)3.11
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)6.904.312.59
Cash Retained (M)3.113.113.11
(-) Cash Required (M)-6.90-4.31-2.59
(=) Excess Retained (M)-3.79-1.200.52
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)14.7814.7814.78
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.26-0.080.04
LTM Dividend per Share2.132.132.13
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.26-0.080.04
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.872.042.16
WACC / Discount Rate9.44%9.44%9.44%
Growth Rate-5.06%-4.06%-3.06%
Fair Value$12.23$14.52$16.75
Upside / Downside-50.53%-41.27%-32.25%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)34.5133.1131.7630.4729.2328.0428.89
Payout Ratio90.98%90.78%90.59%90.39%90.20%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)31.4030.0628.7727.5426.3725.2426.72

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.44%9.44%9.44%
Growth Rate-5.06%-4.06%-3.06%
Year 1 PV (M)27.1827.4627.75
Year 2 PV (M)23.5224.0224.53
Year 3 PV (M)20.3621.0121.68
Year 4 PV (M)17.6318.3819.16
Year 5 PV (M)15.2616.0816.93
PV of Terminal Value (M)250.76264.25278.31
Equity Value (M)354.71371.20388.35
Shares Outstanding (M)14.7814.7814.78
Fair Value$24.01$25.12$26.28
Upside / Downside-2.88%1.63%6.33%

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