Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

Fundamentals

Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

Valuations

Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

Miscellaneous

Indicators Charts WACC Beta Predictability

Mode

Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Deutsche Post AG (DHL.DE)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Integrated Freight & LogisticsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$115.02 - $605.56$229.93
Multi-Stage$75.84 - $82.93$79.32
Blended Fair Value$154.62
Current Price$37.94
Upside307.55%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS8.86%8.40%1.881.911.911.451.231.231.221.100.890.89
YoY Growth---1.63%0.00%31.80%17.65%0.21%0.71%10.94%23.66%-0.29%6.40%
Dividend Yield--4.76%4.87%4.43%3.33%2.64%4.96%4.14%3.10%2.77%3.65%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,538.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,123.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,415.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)707.60442.25265.35
Cash Retained (M)1,415.001,415.001,415.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-707.60-442.25-265.35
(=) Excess Retained (M)707.40972.751,149.65
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,154.691,154.691,154.69
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.610.841.00
LTM Dividend per Share1.841.841.84
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.610.841.00
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.452.682.83
WACC / Discount Rate7.06%7.06%7.06%
Growth Rate4.83%5.83%6.83%
Fair Value$115.02$229.93$605.56
Upside / Downside203.17%506.03%1,496.10%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,538.003,744.243,962.514,193.504,437.954,696.664,837.56
Payout Ratio60.01%66.00%72.00%78.00%84.00%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,123.002,471.372,853.143,271.023,727.934,226.994,474.74

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.06%7.06%7.06%
Growth Rate4.83%5.83%6.83%
Year 1 PV (M)2,286.512,308.322,330.14
Year 2 PV (M)2,442.282,489.092,536.36
Year 3 PV (M)2,590.542,665.392,741.66
Year 4 PV (M)2,731.562,837.292,946.06
Year 5 PV (M)2,865.573,004.883,149.55
PV of Terminal Value (M)74,654.8978,284.2682,053.43
Equity Value (M)87,571.3591,589.2495,757.20
Shares Outstanding (M)1,154.691,154.691,154.69
Fair Value$75.84$79.32$82.93
Upside / Downside99.89%109.07%118.58%

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