Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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CareTrust REIT, Inc. (CTRE)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: REIT - Healthcare FacilitiesSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$56.32 - $268.45$122.97
Multi-Stage$31.59 - $34.46$33.00
Blended Fair Value$77.99
Current Price$34.68
Upside124.88%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS16.39%17.96%0.890.600.550.520.480.420.330.270.190.11
YoY Growth--49.07%8.81%5.31%8.18%15.56%27.97%19.80%41.10%71.04%-33.97%
Dividend Yield--3.11%2.46%2.80%2.70%2.07%2.82%1.39%2.03%1.14%0.89%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)261.38
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)234.26
(=) Cash Retained (M)27.12
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)52.2832.6719.60
Cash Retained (M)27.1227.1227.12
(-) Cash Required (M)-52.28-32.67-19.60
(=) Excess Retained (M)-25.16-5.557.52
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)193.64193.64193.64
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.13-0.030.04
LTM Dividend per Share1.211.211.21
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.13-0.030.04
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.081.181.25
WACC / Discount Rate7.52%7.52%7.52%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$56.32$122.97$268.45
Upside / Downside62.40%254.60%674.08%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)261.38278.37296.47315.74336.26358.12368.86
Payout Ratio89.62%89.70%89.77%89.85%89.92%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)234.26249.70266.15283.69302.38322.31341.20

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.52%7.52%7.52%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)230.05232.23234.41
Year 2 PV (M)225.91230.21234.56
Year 3 PV (M)221.84228.21234.70
Year 4 PV (M)217.85226.23234.85
Year 5 PV (M)213.93224.27234.99
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,007.245,249.095,500.19
Equity Value (M)6,116.826,390.246,673.70
Shares Outstanding (M)193.64193.64193.64
Fair Value$31.59$33.00$34.46
Upside / Downside-8.91%-4.84%-0.62%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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