Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Community Trust Bancorp, Inc. (CTBI)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$153.42 - $613.26$261.66
Multi-Stage$103.34 - $112.98$108.07
Blended Fair Value$184.87
Current Price$52.92
Upside249.34%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS4.95%4.97%1.851.791.661.551.511.461.351.271.231.18
YoY Growth--3.79%7.51%7.24%2.85%3.46%7.54%6.15%3.56%4.03%3.69%
Dividend Yield--3.68%4.28%4.38%3.76%3.42%4.58%3.25%2.82%2.69%3.35%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)93.28
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)34.90
(=) Cash Retained (M)58.38
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)18.6611.667.00
Cash Retained (M)58.3858.3858.38
(-) Cash Required (M)-18.66-11.66-7.00
(=) Excess Retained (M)39.7246.7251.38
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)18.0318.0318.03
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.202.592.85
LTM Dividend per Share1.941.941.94
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.202.592.85
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.144.534.79
WACC / Discount Rate7.96%7.96%7.96%
Growth Rate5.12%6.12%7.12%
Fair Value$153.42$261.66$613.26
Upside / Downside189.90%394.45%1,058.85%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)93.2898.99105.05111.48118.31125.55129.32
Payout Ratio37.41%47.93%58.45%68.96%79.48%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)34.9047.4461.4076.8894.03113.00119.62

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.96%7.96%7.96%
Growth Rate5.12%6.12%7.12%
Year 1 PV (M)43.5343.9544.36
Year 2 PV (M)51.6952.6853.68
Year 3 PV (M)59.3961.1062.84
Year 4 PV (M)66.6569.2271.87
Year 5 PV (M)73.4977.0580.75
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,568.551,644.581,723.54
Equity Value (M)1,863.291,948.582,037.04
Shares Outstanding (M)18.0318.0318.03
Fair Value$103.34$108.07$112.98
Upside / Downside95.28%104.22%113.49%

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