Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Charter Hall Retail REIT (CQR.AX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: REIT - RetailSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$12.68 - $63.78$22.69
Multi-Stage$10.48 - $11.45$10.96
Blended Fair Value$16.83
Current Price$3.84
Upside338.17%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS6.20%8.21%0.250.250.200.180.190.180.190.180.150.13
YoY Growth---1.58%27.94%7.06%-2.12%2.36%-6.35%7.60%22.16%14.63%15.51%
Dividend Yield--6.42%7.85%5.42%4.85%4.92%5.45%4.44%4.32%3.64%2.72%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)231.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)217.50
(=) Cash Retained (M)13.50
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)46.2028.8817.33
Cash Retained (M)13.5013.5013.50
(-) Cash Required (M)-46.20-28.88-17.33
(=) Excess Retained (M)-32.70-15.38-3.83
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)581.21581.21581.21
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.06-0.03-0.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.370.370.37
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.06-0.03-0.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.320.350.37
WACC / Discount Rate6.81%6.81%6.81%
Growth Rate4.20%5.20%6.20%
Fair Value$12.68$22.69$63.78
Upside / Downside230.29%490.97%1,561.06%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)231.00243.00255.63268.91282.88297.58306.50
Payout Ratio94.16%93.32%92.49%91.66%90.83%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)217.50226.78236.44246.49256.94267.82283.52

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.81%6.81%6.81%
Growth Rate4.20%5.20%6.20%
Year 1 PV (M)210.31212.33214.34
Year 2 PV (M)203.34207.26211.22
Year 3 PV (M)196.58202.30208.12
Year 4 PV (M)190.04197.44205.05
Year 5 PV (M)183.69192.68202.01
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,107.115,356.935,616.44
Equity Value (M)6,091.076,368.936,657.19
Shares Outstanding (M)581.21581.21581.21
Fair Value$10.48$10.96$11.45
Upside / Downside172.91%185.36%198.28%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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