Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Columbia Banking System, Inc. (COLB)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$47.07 - $112.31$69.59
Multi-Stage$34.86 - $37.99$36.40
Blended Fair Value$52.99
Current Price$25.74
Upside105.88%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS10.16%11.71%1.381.250.840.850.850.850.800.670.650.62
YoY Growth--11.09%48.27%-0.80%-0.67%-0.07%6.43%19.61%3.07%4.80%35.66%
Dividend Yield--5.55%6.60%3.92%2.62%1.98%3.18%2.37%1.60%1.67%2.07%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)478.30
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)301.08
(=) Cash Retained (M)177.22
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)95.6659.7935.87
Cash Retained (M)177.22177.22177.22
(-) Cash Required (M)-95.66-59.79-35.87
(=) Excess Retained (M)81.56117.44141.35
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)217.07217.07217.07
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.380.540.65
LTM Dividend per Share1.391.391.39
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.380.540.65
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.761.932.04
WACC / Discount Rate9.45%9.45%9.45%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$47.07$69.59$112.31
Upside / Downside82.87%170.34%336.34%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)478.30509.39542.50577.76615.32655.31674.97
Payout Ratio62.95%68.36%73.77%79.18%84.59%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)301.08348.21400.19457.47520.49589.78624.35

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.45%9.45%9.45%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)315.15318.14321.13
Year 2 PV (M)327.82334.07340.37
Year 3 PV (M)339.16348.90358.82
Year 4 PV (M)349.26362.69376.51
Year 5 PV (M)358.19375.49393.45
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,877.966,161.866,456.64
Equity Value (M)7,567.547,901.158,246.91
Shares Outstanding (M)217.07217.07217.07
Fair Value$34.86$36.40$37.99
Upside / Downside35.44%41.41%47.60%

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