Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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ChoiceOne Financial Services, Inc. (COFS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$72.73 - $345.33$159.42
Multi-Stage$40.06 - $43.75$41.87
Blended Fair Value$100.65
Current Price$28.96
Upside247.54%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS9.16%16.57%0.730.640.610.580.500.470.210.190.180.18
YoY Growth--13.93%4.38%5.25%16.62%6.17%125.39%11.02%4.17%2.81%11.57%
Dividend Yield--2.53%2.39%2.43%2.32%2.08%1.85%0.80%0.77%0.86%0.82%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)21.47
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)15.11
(=) Cash Retained (M)6.36
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)4.292.681.61
Cash Retained (M)6.366.366.36
(-) Cash Required (M)-4.29-2.68-1.61
(=) Excess Retained (M)2.073.684.75
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)12.3612.3612.36
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.170.300.38
LTM Dividend per Share1.221.221.22
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.170.300.38
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.391.521.61
WACC / Discount Rate7.51%7.51%7.51%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$72.73$159.42$345.33
Upside / Downside151.14%450.50%1,092.42%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)21.4722.8624.3525.9327.6229.4130.30
Payout Ratio70.38%74.30%78.23%82.15%86.08%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)15.1116.9919.0521.3023.7726.4728.02

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.51%7.51%7.51%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)15.6515.8015.95
Year 2 PV (M)16.1716.4816.79
Year 3 PV (M)16.6617.1417.63
Year 4 PV (M)17.1317.7918.47
Year 5 PV (M)17.5818.4319.31
PV of Terminal Value (M)412.13432.03452.70
Equity Value (M)495.32517.67540.85
Shares Outstanding (M)12.3612.3612.36
Fair Value$40.06$41.87$43.75
Upside / Downside38.34%44.58%51.05%

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