Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

Fundamentals

Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

Valuations

Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

Miscellaneous

Indicators Charts WACC Beta Predictability

Mode

Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Canadian National Railway Company (CNI)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: RailroadsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,112.36 - $1,311.53$1,228.64
Multi-Stage$822.12 - $905.38$862.94
Blended Fair Value$1,045.79
Current Price$131.26
Upside696.73%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS6.73%10.08%3.413.303.202.772.612.462.131.981.851.59
YoY Growth--3.24%3.34%15.17%6.49%5.83%15.83%7.59%6.90%16.37%21.76%
Dividend Yield--2.43%1.86%2.00%1.65%1.79%2.26%1.76%2.10%1.88%1.96%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)4,296.80
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,176.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,120.80
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)859.36537.10322.26
Cash Retained (M)2,120.802,120.802,120.80
(-) Cash Required (M)-859.36-537.10-322.26
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,261.441,583.701,798.54
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)627.05627.05627.05
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.012.532.87
LTM Dividend per Share3.473.473.47
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.012.532.87
(=) Adjusted Dividend5.486.006.34
WACC / Discount Rate-2.42%-2.42%-2.42%
Growth Rate1.46%2.46%3.46%
Fair Value$1,112.36$1,228.64$1,311.53
Upside / Downside747.45%836.04%899.18%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)4,296.804,402.394,510.584,621.434,735.004,851.364,996.90
Payout Ratio50.64%58.51%66.39%74.26%82.13%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,176.002,576.012,994.373,431.733,888.784,366.224,622.13

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-2.42%-2.42%-2.42%
Growth Rate1.46%2.46%3.46%
Year 1 PV (M)2,614.102,639.862,665.63
Year 2 PV (M)3,083.563,144.653,206.33
Year 3 PV (M)3,586.203,693.293,802.49
Year 4 PV (M)4,123.914,288.914,458.82
Year 5 PV (M)4,698.674,934.845,180.41
PV of Terminal Value (M)497,406.58522,407.65548,404.06
Equity Value (M)515,513.02541,109.20567,717.74
Shares Outstanding (M)627.05627.05627.05
Fair Value$822.12$862.94$905.38
Upside / Downside526.33%557.43%589.76%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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