Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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CMS Energy Corporation 5.6% JRSUB NT 78 (CMSA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated ElectricSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$166.69 - $690.88$426.67
Multi-Stage$99.93 - $109.34$104.55
Blended Fair Value$265.61
Current Price$73.26
Upside262.56%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS7.50%7.81%2.091.931.821.701.561.461.361.261.161.08
YoY Growth--8.12%6.04%7.27%8.99%7.11%7.13%7.96%8.65%7.76%9.15%
Dividend Yield--2.78%3.22%2.97%2.43%2.55%2.48%2.47%2.78%2.59%2.53%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,047.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)652.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)395.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)209.40130.8878.53
Cash Retained (M)395.00395.00395.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-209.40-130.88-78.53
(=) Excess Retained (M)185.60264.13316.48
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)299.35299.35299.35
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.620.881.06
LTM Dividend per Share2.182.182.18
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.620.881.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.803.063.24
WACC / Discount Rate6.53%6.53%6.53%
Growth Rate4.77%5.77%6.77%
Fair Value$166.69$426.67$690.88
Upside / Downside127.54%482.40%843.06%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,047.001,107.441,171.371,238.981,310.511,386.161,427.74
Payout Ratio62.27%67.82%73.36%78.91%84.45%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)652.00751.05859.36977.671,106.781,247.541,320.66

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.53%6.53%6.53%
Growth Rate4.77%5.77%6.77%
Year 1 PV (M)698.34705.00711.67
Year 2 PV (M)742.97757.22771.60
Year 3 PV (M)785.93808.65831.81
Year 4 PV (M)827.28859.32892.28
Year 5 PV (M)867.05909.22953.02
PV of Terminal Value (M)25,992.5727,256.9028,569.97
Equity Value (M)29,914.1431,296.3232,730.35
Shares Outstanding (M)299.35299.35299.35
Fair Value$99.93$104.55$109.34
Upside / Downside36.41%42.71%49.25%

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