Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Chememan Public Company Limited (CMAN.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$11.28 - $47.49$19.46
Multi-Stage$10.19 - $11.17$10.67
Blended Fair Value$15.07
Current Price$2.52
Upside497.86%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%2.74%0.070.040.000.000.020.070.050.100.000.24
YoY Growth--75.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-71.43%40.00%-52.05%0.00%-100.00%343.86%
Dividend Yield--3.04%2.01%0.00%0.00%0.85%7.14%1.89%2.29%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)362.32
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)115.20
(=) Cash Retained (M)247.12
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)72.4645.2927.17
Cash Retained (M)247.12247.12247.12
(-) Cash Required (M)-72.46-45.29-27.17
(=) Excess Retained (M)174.66201.83219.95
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)960.00960.00960.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.180.210.23
LTM Dividend per Share0.120.120.12
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.180.210.23
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.300.330.35
WACC / Discount Rate6.49%6.49%6.49%
Growth Rate3.71%4.71%5.71%
Fair Value$11.28$19.46$47.49
Upside / Downside347.45%672.18%1,784.69%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)362.32379.38397.25415.95435.54456.05469.73
Payout Ratio31.80%43.44%55.08%66.72%78.36%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)115.20164.79218.79277.51341.28410.44434.50

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.49%6.49%6.49%
Growth Rate3.71%4.71%5.71%
Year 1 PV (M)153.27154.75156.23
Year 2 PV (M)189.28192.95196.65
Year 3 PV (M)223.31229.83236.48
Year 4 PV (M)255.43265.43275.71
Year 5 PV (M)285.73299.77314.36
PV of Terminal Value (M)8,677.209,103.699,546.78
Equity Value (M)9,784.2210,246.4210,726.22
Shares Outstanding (M)960.00960.00960.00
Fair Value$10.19$10.67$11.17
Upside / Downside304.44%323.55%343.38%

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