Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Chemung Financial Corporation (CHMG)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$92.76 - $545.81$170.85
Multi-Stage$66.91 - $73.22$70.00
Blended Fair Value$120.43
Current Price$52.52
Upside129.30%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS7.93%4.38%1.541.221.211.111.041.051.041.031.021.01
YoY Growth--26.11%0.74%9.01%6.23%-0.46%1.21%1.06%0.80%0.93%0.77%
Dividend Yield--3.23%2.91%2.91%2.37%2.50%3.18%2.15%2.21%2.57%3.82%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)13.28
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)6.17
(=) Cash Retained (M)7.11
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2.661.661.00
Cash Retained (M)7.117.117.11
(-) Cash Required (M)-2.66-1.66-1.00
(=) Excess Retained (M)4.455.456.11
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4.804.804.80
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.931.141.27
LTM Dividend per Share1.291.291.29
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.931.141.27
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.212.422.56
WACC / Discount Rate7.07%7.07%7.07%
Growth Rate4.57%5.57%6.57%
Fair Value$92.76$170.85$545.81
Upside / Downside76.61%225.31%939.24%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)13.2814.0214.8015.6216.4917.4117.93
Payout Ratio46.47%55.18%63.88%72.59%81.29%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)6.177.739.4511.3413.4115.6716.59

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.07%7.07%7.07%
Growth Rate4.57%5.57%6.57%
Year 1 PV (M)7.167.227.29
Year 2 PV (M)8.098.258.40
Year 3 PV (M)8.989.249.50
Year 4 PV (M)9.8210.2010.59
Year 5 PV (M)10.6211.1411.67
PV of Terminal Value (M)276.23289.69303.68
Equity Value (M)320.90335.74351.15
Shares Outstanding (M)4.804.804.80
Fair Value$66.91$70.00$73.22
Upside / Downside27.40%33.29%39.41%

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