Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Industry

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CES Energy Solutions Corp. (CEU.TO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas Equipment & ServicesSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$20.03 - $59.88$31.73
Multi-Stage$13.19 - $14.42$13.80
Blended Fair Value$22.76
Current Price$9.39
Upside142.41%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS11.00%-7.90%0.120.100.070.020.020.070.050.040.060.32
YoY Growth--19.32%37.94%300.44%-4.45%-73.24%32.37%51.21%-43.27%-80.44%17.32%
Dividend Yield--1.60%2.05%2.68%0.75%1.17%8.66%1.83%0.62%0.85%9.89%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)178.28
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)32.53
(=) Cash Retained (M)145.75
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)35.6622.2913.37
Cash Retained (M)145.75145.75145.75
(-) Cash Required (M)-35.66-22.29-13.37
(=) Excess Retained (M)110.10123.47132.38
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)227.51227.51227.51
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.480.540.58
LTM Dividend per Share0.140.140.14
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.480.540.58
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.630.690.72
WACC / Discount Rate8.80%8.80%8.80%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$20.03$31.73$59.88
Upside / Downside113.34%237.91%537.65%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)178.28189.87202.21215.35229.35244.26251.59
Payout Ratio18.25%32.60%46.95%61.30%75.65%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)32.5361.8994.93132.01173.50219.83232.72

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.80%8.80%8.80%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)56.3556.8857.42
Year 2 PV (M)78.7080.1981.71
Year 3 PV (M)99.63102.49105.41
Year 4 PV (M)119.23123.81128.53
Year 5 PV (M)137.54144.19151.08
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,509.802,631.032,756.89
Equity Value (M)3,001.253,138.603,281.04
Shares Outstanding (M)227.51227.51227.51
Fair Value$13.19$13.80$14.42
Upside / Downside40.49%46.92%53.58%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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