Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Companhia de Eletricidade do Estado da Bahia - COELBA (CEEB3.SA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated ElectricSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$856.75 - $1,582.07$1,482.63
Multi-Stage$249.29 - $272.91$260.88
Blended Fair Value$871.76
Current Price$37.49
Upside2,225.30%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-7.83%48.78%2.714.456.396.530.434.081.230.030.471.14
YoY Growth---39.02%-30.35%-2.16%1,427.68%-89.52%232.82%3,984.04%-93.62%-58.80%2,136.97%
Dividend Yield--7.04%11.41%16.59%17.65%1.07%10.47%4.15%0.12%2.10%4.63%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,085.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)792.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,293.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)417.00260.63156.38
Cash Retained (M)1,293.001,293.001,293.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-417.00-260.63-156.38
(=) Excess Retained (M)876.001,032.381,136.63
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)262.10262.10262.10
(=) Excess Retained per Share3.343.944.34
LTM Dividend per Share3.023.023.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share3.343.944.34
(=) Adjusted Dividend6.366.967.36
WACC / Discount Rate6.28%6.28%6.28%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$856.75$1,482.63$1,582.07
Upside / Downside2,185.28%3,854.74%4,119.98%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,085.002,220.532,364.862,518.572,682.282,856.632,942.33
Payout Ratio37.99%48.39%58.79%69.19%79.60%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)792.001,074.481,390.331,742.712,135.022,570.972,721.65

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.28%6.28%6.28%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,001.461,010.951,020.45
Year 2 PV (M)1,207.791,230.801,254.02
Year 3 PV (M)1,411.021,451.531,492.80
Year 4 PV (M)1,611.191,673.151,736.89
Year 5 PV (M)1,808.331,895.671,986.36
PV of Terminal Value (M)58,298.1761,113.9964,037.58
Equity Value (M)65,337.9668,376.0971,528.09
Shares Outstanding (M)262.10262.10262.10
Fair Value$249.29$260.88$272.91
Upside / Downside564.95%595.87%627.95%

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