Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Commerce Bancshares, Inc. (CBSH)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$72.56 - $146.07$101.08
Multi-Stage$70.94 - $77.65$74.23
Blended Fair Value$87.66
Current Price$59.76
Upside46.68%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS5.04%5.59%1.091.010.960.920.910.850.750.690.650.64
YoY Growth--7.69%5.70%3.89%1.55%6.48%13.20%9.41%5.22%2.48%0.85%
Dividend Yield--1.75%2.03%1.81%1.49%1.44%2.16%1.70%1.61%1.72%2.20%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)562.98
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)148.61
(=) Cash Retained (M)414.37
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)112.6070.3742.22
Cash Retained (M)414.37414.37414.37
(-) Cash Required (M)-112.60-70.37-42.22
(=) Excess Retained (M)301.77344.00372.15
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)133.25133.25133.25
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.262.582.79
LTM Dividend per Share1.121.121.12
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.262.582.79
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.383.703.91
WACC / Discount Rate8.41%8.41%8.41%
Growth Rate3.59%4.59%5.59%
Fair Value$72.56$101.08$146.07
Upside / Downside21.42%69.15%144.42%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)562.98588.81615.82644.07673.62704.52725.65
Payout Ratio26.40%39.12%51.84%64.56%77.28%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)148.61230.33319.23415.80520.57634.07671.23

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.41%8.41%8.41%
Growth Rate3.59%4.59%5.59%
Year 1 PV (M)210.42212.45214.49
Year 2 PV (M)266.44271.61276.83
Year 3 PV (M)317.05326.33335.78
Year 4 PV (M)362.63376.84391.46
Year 5 PV (M)403.53423.39444.02
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,892.608,280.998,684.52
Equity Value (M)9,452.689,891.6110,347.09
Shares Outstanding (M)133.25133.25133.25
Fair Value$70.94$74.23$77.65
Upside / Downside18.70%24.22%29.94%

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