Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

Fundamentals

Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

Valuations

Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

Miscellaneous

Indicators Charts WACC Beta Predictability

Mode

Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Caterpillar Inc. (CAT)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$240.18 - $405.40$312.37
Multi-Stage$275.79 - $301.91$288.61
Blended Fair Value$300.49
Current Price$477.15
Upside-37.02%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS4.41%5.03%5.555.385.124.894.714.474.093.843.783.69
YoY Growth--3.24%5.04%4.63%3.97%5.21%9.28%6.55%1.78%2.39%8.46%
Dividend Yield--1.68%1.48%2.24%2.20%2.03%3.86%2.92%2.61%4.07%4.82%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)9,263.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,723.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)6,540.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,852.601,157.88694.73
Cash Retained (M)6,540.006,540.006,540.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,852.60-1,157.88-694.73
(=) Excess Retained (M)4,687.405,382.135,845.28
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)476.53476.53476.53
(=) Excess Retained per Share9.8411.2912.27
LTM Dividend per Share5.715.715.71
(+) Excess Retained per Share9.8411.2912.27
(=) Adjusted Dividend15.5517.0117.98
WACC / Discount Rate9.05%9.05%9.05%
Growth Rate2.41%3.41%4.41%
Fair Value$240.18$312.37$405.40
Upside / Downside-49.66%-34.54%-15.04%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)9,263.009,579.289,906.3610,244.6010,594.4010,956.1411,284.82
Payout Ratio29.40%41.52%53.64%65.76%77.88%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,723.003,977.055,313.566,736.718,250.849,860.5210,438.46

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.05%9.05%9.05%
Growth Rate2.41%3.41%4.41%
Year 1 PV (M)3,611.883,647.153,682.41
Year 2 PV (M)4,382.584,468.594,555.43
Year 3 PV (M)5,046.205,195.465,347.64
Year 4 PV (M)5,612.905,835.356,064.35
Year 5 PV (M)6,092.016,395.306,710.54
PV of Terminal Value (M)106,675.33111,986.05117,506.21
Equity Value (M)131,420.90137,527.90143,866.59
Shares Outstanding (M)476.53476.53476.53
Fair Value$275.79$288.61$301.91
Upside / Downside-42.20%-39.51%-36.73%

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