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Definitive Analysis

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China Automotive Systems, Inc. (CAAS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$90.08 - $220.68$206.81
Multi-Stage$32.90 - $35.97$34.41
Blended Fair Value$120.61
Current Price$4.71
Upside2,460.71%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%17.99%0.740.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.020.01
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%115.87%-94.13%
Dividend Yield--16.82%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.06%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.36%0.18%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)33.48
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)24.21
(=) Cash Retained (M)9.28
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)6.704.192.51
Cash Retained (M)9.289.289.28
(-) Cash Required (M)-6.70-4.19-2.51
(=) Excess Retained (M)2.585.096.76
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)30.1730.1730.17
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.090.170.22
LTM Dividend per Share0.800.800.80
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.090.170.22
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.890.971.03
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$90.08$206.81$220.68
Upside / Downside1,812.54%4,290.89%4,585.39%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)33.4835.6637.9840.4443.0745.8747.25
Payout Ratio72.30%75.84%79.38%82.92%86.46%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)24.2127.0430.1433.5437.2441.2943.71

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)25.1425.3825.62
Year 2 PV (M)26.0626.5627.06
Year 3 PV (M)26.9627.7328.52
Year 4 PV (M)27.8328.9130.01
Year 5 PV (M)28.6930.0831.52
PV of Terminal Value (M)858.09899.54942.57
Equity Value (M)992.781,038.191,085.29
Shares Outstanding (M)30.1730.1730.17
Fair Value$32.90$34.41$35.97
Upside / Downside598.56%630.52%663.66%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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