Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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BNP Paribas S.A. (BNP.DE)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$708.97 - $3,801.25$1,396.77
Multi-Stage$475.10 - $519.74$497.01
Blended Fair Value$946.89
Current Price$76.27
Upside1,141.50%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS8.30%13.23%5.154.684.253.930.373.463.503.001.590.56
YoY Growth--10.06%10.14%8.19%963.38%-89.32%-1.29%16.84%88.50%184.34%-62.39%
Dividend Yield--8.74%7.45%7.93%6.47%0.85%6.51%8.99%4.85%2.65%1.06%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)22,186.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)11,339.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)10,847.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)4,437.202,773.251,663.95
Cash Retained (M)10,847.0010,847.0010,847.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-4,437.20-2,773.25-1,663.95
(=) Excess Retained (M)6,409.808,073.759,183.05
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,152.741,152.741,152.74
(=) Excess Retained per Share5.567.007.97
LTM Dividend per Share9.849.849.84
(+) Excess Retained per Share5.567.007.97
(=) Adjusted Dividend15.4016.8417.80
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate4.76%5.76%6.76%
Fair Value$708.97$1,396.77$3,801.25
Upside / Downside829.55%1,731.34%4,883.94%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)22,186.0023,463.7824,815.1526,244.3527,755.8629,354.4330,235.06
Payout Ratio51.11%58.89%66.67%74.44%82.22%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)11,339.0013,817.1316,543.0919,537.2222,821.3626,418.9827,967.43

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate4.76%5.76%6.76%
Year 1 PV (M)12,786.9812,909.0413,031.10
Year 2 PV (M)14,168.2814,440.0614,714.42
Year 3 PV (M)15,485.0715,932.7716,389.01
Year 4 PV (M)16,739.4917,387.8618,054.89
Year 5 PV (M)17,933.5918,806.0219,712.09
PV of Terminal Value (M)470,557.68493,449.54517,223.78
Equity Value (M)547,671.09572,925.29599,125.29
Shares Outstanding (M)1,152.741,152.741,152.74
Fair Value$475.10$497.01$519.74
Upside / Downside522.92%551.65%581.45%

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