Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Bristol-Myers Squibb Company (BMY)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - GeneralSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$195.43 - $589.45$552.40
Multi-Stage$82.78 - $90.44$86.54
Blended Fair Value$319.47
Current Price$45.10
Upside608.36%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS12.66%7.33%2.392.332.272.162.001.311.281.261.251.22
YoY Growth--2.51%2.37%5.41%7.88%52.11%2.53%1.40%1.18%2.83%3.29%
Dividend Yield--3.91%4.39%3.28%2.95%3.17%2.36%2.72%2.00%2.30%1.90%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)6,039.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)5,001.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,038.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,207.80754.88452.93
Cash Retained (M)1,038.001,038.001,038.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,207.80-754.88-452.93
(=) Excess Retained (M)-169.80283.13585.08
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,037.492,037.492,037.49
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.080.140.29
LTM Dividend per Share2.452.452.45
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.080.140.29
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.372.592.74
WACC / Discount Rate6.78%6.78%6.78%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$195.43$552.40$589.45
Upside / Downside333.33%1,124.84%1,206.99%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)6,039.006,431.546,849.587,294.817,768.978,273.958,522.17
Payout Ratio82.81%84.25%85.69%87.12%88.56%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)5,001.005,418.535,869.216,355.586,880.387,446.567,883.01

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.78%6.78%6.78%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)5,026.835,074.485,122.13
Year 2 PV (M)5,051.325,147.545,244.66
Year 3 PV (M)5,074.515,220.185,368.61
Year 4 PV (M)5,096.415,292.405,493.99
Year 5 PV (M)5,117.055,364.215,620.82
PV of Terminal Value (M)143,305.59150,227.30157,413.93
Equity Value (M)168,671.71176,326.11184,264.14
Shares Outstanding (M)2,037.492,037.492,037.49
Fair Value$82.78$86.54$90.44
Upside / Downside83.56%91.89%100.53%

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