Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Bangkok Sheet Metal Public Company Limited (BM.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Manufacturing - Metal FabricationSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.46 - $11.36$6.73
Multi-Stage$5.24 - $5.74$5.49
Blended Fair Value$6.11
Current Price$1.13
Upside440.76%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS3.50%0.00%0.060.080.030.050.050.050.030.100.100.10
YoY Growth---19.36%174.67%-46.38%0.00%0.00%100.00%-72.50%-4.48%0.86%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.39%2.78%0.68%1.08%1.19%4.09%0.92%2.85%2.60%2.59%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)132.52
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)102.07
(=) Cash Retained (M)30.45
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)26.5016.569.94
Cash Retained (M)30.4530.4530.45
(-) Cash Required (M)-26.50-16.56-9.94
(=) Excess Retained (M)3.9513.8920.51
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)656.81656.81656.81
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.010.020.03
LTM Dividend per Share0.160.160.16
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.010.020.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.160.180.19
WACC / Discount Rate6.60%6.60%6.60%
Growth Rate2.87%3.87%4.87%
Fair Value$4.46$6.73$11.36
Upside / Downside294.70%495.98%905.29%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)132.52137.65142.98148.52154.28160.25165.06
Payout Ratio77.02%79.62%82.21%84.81%87.40%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)102.07109.59117.55125.96134.84144.23152.68

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.60%6.60%6.60%
Growth Rate2.87%3.87%4.87%
Year 1 PV (M)101.82102.81103.80
Year 2 PV (M)101.47103.45105.45
Year 3 PV (M)101.02103.99107.02
Year 4 PV (M)100.47104.44108.52
Year 5 PV (M)99.84104.79109.93
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,938.603,084.233,235.57
Equity Value (M)3,443.223,603.713,770.30
Shares Outstanding (M)656.81656.81656.81
Fair Value$5.24$5.49$5.74
Upside / Downside363.93%385.55%408.00%

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