Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

Valuations

Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Ticker

Industry

Sector

Ball Corporation (BLL)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaging & ContainersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$160.25 - $268.99$207.94
Multi-Stage$223.60 - $245.62$234.40
Blended Fair Value$221.17
Current Price$69.49
Upside218.28%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202120202019201820172016201520142013
DPS13.60%14.72%0.850.800.690.640.480.450.290.250.250.26
YoY Growth--6.55%15.66%8.79%32.85%6.20%55.42%15.60%-1.24%-3.32%21.68%
Dividend Yield--1.23%0.89%0.82%0.98%0.82%1.14%0.78%0.70%0.72%0.96%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,811.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)361.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,450.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)762.20476.38285.83
Cash Retained (M)3,450.003,450.003,450.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-762.20-476.38-285.83
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,687.802,973.633,164.18
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)285.98285.98285.98
(=) Excess Retained per Share9.4010.4011.06
LTM Dividend per Share1.261.261.26
(+) Excess Retained per Share9.4010.4011.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend10.6611.6612.33
WACC / Discount Rate7.77%7.77%7.77%
Growth Rate1.05%2.05%3.05%
Fair Value$160.25$207.94$268.99
Upside / Downside130.61%199.24%287.09%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,811.003,889.053,968.714,049.994,132.944,217.584,344.11
Payout Ratio9.47%25.58%41.68%57.79%73.89%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)361.00994.741,654.302,340.453,054.013,795.834,018.30

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.77%7.77%7.77%
Growth Rate1.05%2.05%3.05%
Year 1 PV (M)913.98923.02932.07
Year 2 PV (M)1,396.571,424.341,452.40
Year 3 PV (M)1,815.391,869.831,925.34
Year 4 PV (M)2,176.542,263.992,354.04
Year 5 PV (M)2,485.572,611.022,741.48
PV of Terminal Value (M)55,158.2957,942.1660,837.31
Equity Value (M)63,946.3367,034.3570,242.62
Shares Outstanding (M)285.98285.98285.98
Fair Value$223.60$234.40$245.62
Upside / Downside221.77%237.31%253.46%

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