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Definitive Analysis

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The Buckle, Inc. (BKE)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Apparel - RetailSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$68.25 - $134.49$94.32
Multi-Stage$65.98 - $71.85$68.86
Blended Fair Value$81.59
Current Price$54.80
Upside48.89%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS11.90%1.15%3.913.894.016.872.542.231.932.651.681.85
YoY Growth--0.65%-3.03%-41.67%170.74%13.83%15.46%-26.99%57.78%-9.51%-46.90%
Dividend Yield--10.89%10.23%11.96%22.13%6.05%15.55%10.18%11.81%8.97%6.40%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)206.10
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)198.29
(=) Cash Retained (M)7.81
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)41.2225.7615.46
Cash Retained (M)7.817.817.81
(-) Cash Required (M)-41.22-25.76-15.46
(=) Excess Retained (M)-33.41-17.95-7.65
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)50.6150.6150.61
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.66-0.35-0.15
LTM Dividend per Share3.923.923.92
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.66-0.35-0.15
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.263.563.77
WACC / Discount Rate9.20%9.20%9.20%
Growth Rate4.23%5.23%6.23%
Fair Value$68.25$94.32$134.49
Upside / Downside24.54%72.12%145.43%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)206.10216.87228.20240.13252.68265.89273.87
Payout Ratio96.21%94.97%93.73%92.48%91.24%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)198.29205.96213.89222.08230.55239.30253.33

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.20%9.20%9.20%
Growth Rate4.23%5.23%6.23%
Year 1 PV (M)186.81188.60190.39
Year 2 PV (M)175.97179.36182.78
Year 3 PV (M)165.72170.54175.45
Year 4 PV (M)156.05162.12168.38
Year 5 PV (M)146.91154.10161.56
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,507.562,630.182,757.56
Equity Value (M)3,339.023,484.903,636.12
Shares Outstanding (M)50.6150.6150.61
Fair Value$65.98$68.86$71.85
Upside / Downside20.40%25.66%31.11%

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