Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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PT Bank Pembangunan Daerah Jawa Timur Tbk (BJTM.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,366.73 - $2,553.52$1,851.05
Multi-Stage$1,962.25 - $2,150.79$2,054.74
Blended Fair Value$1,952.89
Current Price$500.00
Upside290.58%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS3.61%3.03%54.3953.0952.1148.8548.2045.5443.9843.4442.7241.59
YoY Growth--2.45%1.88%6.67%1.35%5.83%3.56%1.25%1.67%2.72%3.07%
Dividend Yield--10.88%8.85%7.09%6.18%6.14%10.40%6.71%6.89%6.19%8.76%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,368,464.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)821,498.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)546,966.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)273,692.80171,058.00102,634.80
Cash Retained (M)546,966.00546,966.00546,966.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-273,692.80-171,058.00-102,634.80
(=) Excess Retained (M)273,273.20375,908.00444,331.20
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)15,015.5015,015.5015,015.50
(=) Excess Retained per Share18.2025.0329.59
LTM Dividend per Share54.7154.7154.71
(+) Excess Retained per Share18.2025.0329.59
(=) Adjusted Dividend72.9179.7484.30
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate1.61%2.61%3.61%
Fair Value$1,366.73$1,851.05$2,553.52
Upside / Downside173.35%270.21%410.70%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,368,464.001,404,233.201,440,937.351,478,600.881,517,248.871,556,907.041,603,614.25
Payout Ratio60.03%66.02%72.02%78.01%84.01%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)821,498.00927,138.371,037,739.991,153,490.041,274,582.091,401,216.341,483,343.18

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate1.61%2.61%3.61%
Year 1 PV (M)857,763.69866,205.09874,646.50
Year 2 PV (M)888,249.05905,817.92923,558.84
Year 3 PV (M)913,446.57940,681.02968,451.49
Year 4 PV (M)933,813.65971,119.171,009,531.43
Year 5 PV (M)949,774.92997,438.401,046,996.51
PV of Terminal Value (M)24,921,056.0926,171,693.6427,472,044.29
Equity Value (M)29,464,103.9730,852,955.2432,295,229.06
Shares Outstanding (M)15,015.5015,015.5015,015.50
Fair Value$1,962.25$2,054.74$2,150.79
Upside / Downside292.45%310.95%330.16%

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