Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Ticker

Industry

Sector

Brown-Forman Corporation (BF-A)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Beverages - Wineries & DistilleriesSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$21.99 - $37.94$28.86
Multi-Stage$30.89 - $33.84$32.34
Blended Fair Value$30.60
Current Price$27.23
Upside12.36%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS5.26%5.08%0.890.850.801.760.710.690.661.630.580.56
YoY Growth--3.96%6.88%-54.51%145.86%4.00%4.84%-59.90%182.12%3.01%3.91%
Dividend Yield--3.08%1.89%1.13%2.35%1.01%0.99%1.20%3.07%1.47%1.44%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)810.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)428.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)382.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)162.00101.2560.75
Cash Retained (M)382.00382.00382.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-162.00-101.25-60.75
(=) Excess Retained (M)220.00280.75321.25
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)472.84472.84472.84
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.470.590.68
LTM Dividend per Share0.910.910.91
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.470.590.68
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.371.501.58
WACC / Discount Rate7.72%7.72%7.72%
Growth Rate1.40%2.40%3.40%
Fair Value$21.99$28.86$37.94
Upside / Downside-19.24%5.98%39.32%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)810.00829.44849.35869.74890.62911.99939.35
Payout Ratio52.84%60.27%67.70%75.14%82.57%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)428.00499.92575.04653.49735.36820.80868.90

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.72%7.72%7.72%
Growth Rate1.40%2.40%3.40%
Year 1 PV (M)459.56464.09468.63
Year 2 PV (M)485.95495.58505.31
Year 3 PV (M)507.66522.82538.29
Year 4 PV (M)525.15546.17567.82
Year 5 PV (M)538.84565.94594.11
PV of Terminal Value (M)12,086.9212,694.7913,326.88
Equity Value (M)14,604.0715,289.4016,001.04
Shares Outstanding (M)472.84472.84472.84
Fair Value$30.89$32.34$33.84
Upside / Downside13.43%18.75%24.28%

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