Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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PT Bank Negara Indonesia (Persero) Tbk (BBNI.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$30,787.28 - $111,321.37$97,589.00
Multi-Stage$14,458.79 - $15,799.24$15,116.81
Blended Fair Value$56,352.91
Current Price$4,120.00
Upside1,267.79%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS22.74%14.43%280.46196.5073.0922.00103.18100.70127.85106.4660.8172.31
YoY Growth--42.73%168.84%232.23%-78.68%2.46%-21.23%20.09%75.07%-15.91%-0.76%
Dividend Yield--6.61%3.48%1.56%0.53%3.60%5.27%2.72%2.45%1.88%2.78%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)20,866,036.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)13,951,339.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)6,914,697.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)4,173,207.202,608,254.501,564,952.70
Cash Retained (M)6,914,697.006,914,697.006,914,697.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-4,173,207.20-2,608,254.50-1,564,952.70
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,741,489.804,306,442.505,349,744.30
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)37,277.0637,277.0637,277.06
(=) Excess Retained per Share73.54115.53143.51
LTM Dividend per Share374.26374.26374.26
(+) Excess Retained per Share73.54115.53143.51
(=) Adjusted Dividend447.80489.79517.77
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$30,787.28$97,589.00$111,321.37
Upside / Downside647.26%2,268.67%2,601.98%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)20,866,036.0022,222,328.3423,666,779.6825,205,120.3626,843,453.1828,588,277.6429,445,925.97
Payout Ratio66.86%71.49%76.12%80.74%85.37%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)13,951,339.0015,886,559.9318,014,415.1720,351,770.8822,916,871.9325,729,449.8827,237,481.52

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)14,703,099.4814,842,465.3514,981,831.22
Year 2 PV (M)15,430,437.0715,724,343.5616,021,022.75
Year 3 PV (M)16,133,897.5616,597,043.7817,068,969.76
Year 4 PV (M)16,814,016.0717,460,635.6818,125,728.75
Year 5 PV (M)17,471,317.3118,315,188.4719,191,356.56
PV of Terminal Value (M)458,428,274.22480,570,531.28503,560,224.64
Equity Value (M)538,981,041.71563,510,208.11588,949,133.68
Shares Outstanding (M)37,277.0637,277.0637,277.06
Fair Value$14,458.79$15,116.81$15,799.24
Upside / Downside250.94%266.91%283.48%

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