Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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AdvanSix Inc. (ASIX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ChemicalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$12.82 - $18.22$15.48
Multi-Stage$19.84 - $21.77$20.79
Blended Fair Value$18.13
Current Price$19.38
Upside-6.42%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.630.610.550.130.000.000.000.009.880.00
YoY Growth--2.87%10.51%328.45%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.78%2.25%1.45%0.25%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%36.17%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)52.43
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)17.15
(=) Cash Retained (M)35.28
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)10.496.553.93
Cash Retained (M)35.2835.2835.28
(-) Cash Required (M)-10.49-6.55-3.93
(=) Excess Retained (M)24.7928.7231.34
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)27.2627.2627.26
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.911.051.15
LTM Dividend per Share0.630.630.63
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.911.051.15
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.541.681.78
WACC / Discount Rate9.76%9.76%9.76%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$12.82$15.48$18.22
Upside / Downside-33.85%-20.12%-5.97%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)52.4351.9051.3950.8750.3649.8651.36
Payout Ratio32.72%44.17%55.63%67.09%78.54%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)17.1522.9328.5934.1339.5644.8747.50

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.76%9.76%9.76%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)20.6820.8921.10
Year 2 PV (M)23.2523.7324.21
Year 3 PV (M)25.0325.8126.60
Year 4 PV (M)26.1727.2528.37
Year 5 PV (M)26.7728.1629.62
PV of Terminal Value (M)418.97440.78463.50
Equity Value (M)540.86566.62593.39
Shares Outstanding (M)27.2627.2627.26
Fair Value$19.84$20.79$21.77
Upside / Downside2.40%7.27%12.34%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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