Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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PT Astra Graphia Tbk (ASGR.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Specialty Business ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,071.37 - $1,511.44$1,289.33
Multi-Stage$3,073.16 - $3,392.08$3,229.38
Blended Fair Value$2,259.36
Current Price$1,165.00
Upside93.94%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-6.71%-2.60%53.0034.0027.0016.0054.0074.9980.9973.99119.9976.99
YoY Growth--55.88%25.92%68.75%-70.37%-28.00%-7.41%9.46%-38.33%55.84%11.59%
Dividend Yield--6.46%4.00%2.83%1.84%6.71%9.20%5.83%4.71%6.22%4.02%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)235,362.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)133,529.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)101,833.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)47,072.4029,420.2517,652.15
Cash Retained (M)101,833.00101,833.00101,833.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-47,072.40-29,420.25-17,652.15
(=) Excess Retained (M)54,760.6072,412.7584,180.85
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,348.891,348.891,348.89
(=) Excess Retained per Share40.6053.6862.41
LTM Dividend per Share98.9998.9998.99
(+) Excess Retained per Share40.6053.6862.41
(=) Adjusted Dividend139.59152.67161.40
WACC / Discount Rate6.45%6.45%6.45%
Growth Rate-5.82%-4.82%-3.82%
Fair Value$1,071.37$1,289.33$1,511.44
Upside / Downside-8.04%10.67%29.74%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)235,362.00224,014.12213,213.37202,933.37193,149.02183,836.42189,351.51
Payout Ratio56.73%63.39%70.04%76.69%83.35%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)133,529.00141,995.30149,334.80155,636.47160,983.32165,452.78175,150.15

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.45%6.45%6.45%
Growth Rate-5.82%-4.82%-3.82%
Year 1 PV (M)131,991.31133,392.81134,794.31
Year 2 PV (M)129,033.88131,788.62134,572.46
Year 3 PV (M)125,004.44129,028.81133,138.64
Year 4 PV (M)120,189.44125,376.07130,728.78
Year 5 PV (M)114,823.52121,050.41127,544.57
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,524,316.803,715,440.963,914,768.39
Equity Value (M)4,145,359.384,356,077.694,575,547.15
Shares Outstanding (M)1,348.891,348.891,348.89
Fair Value$3,073.16$3,229.38$3,392.08
Upside / Downside163.79%177.20%191.17%

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