Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Arch Resources, Inc. (ARCH)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: CoalSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$298.27 - $1,299.25$518.43
Multi-Stage$188.10 - $205.39$196.59
Blended Fair Value$357.51
Current Price$138.16
Upside158.76%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2023202220212020201920182017201620152014
DPS45.82%23.25%11.1324.640.210.451.631.691.320.000.000.11
YoY Growth---54.84%11,816.24%-53.55%-72.72%-3.35%28.31%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-91.67%
Dividend Yield--6.98%18.74%0.15%1.07%5.65%1.84%1.43%0.00%0.00%0.18%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)179.45
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)91.28
(=) Cash Retained (M)88.17
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)35.8922.4313.46
Cash Retained (M)88.1788.1788.17
(-) Cash Required (M)-35.89-22.43-13.46
(=) Excess Retained (M)52.2865.7474.71
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)18.5218.5218.52
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.823.554.03
LTM Dividend per Share4.934.934.93
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.823.554.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend7.758.488.96
WACC / Discount Rate8.24%8.24%8.24%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$298.27$518.43$1,299.25
Upside / Downside115.89%275.24%840.39%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)179.45191.12203.54216.77230.86245.86253.24
Payout Ratio50.87%58.69%66.52%74.35%82.17%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)91.28112.17135.39161.16189.70221.28234.25

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.24%8.24%8.24%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)102.66103.63104.60
Year 2 PV (M)113.40115.56117.74
Year 3 PV (M)123.53127.08130.69
Year 4 PV (M)133.08138.20143.46
Year 5 PV (M)142.06148.92156.05
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,869.213,007.793,151.68
Equity Value (M)3,483.943,641.183,804.22
Shares Outstanding (M)18.5218.5218.52
Fair Value$188.10$196.59$205.39
Upside / Downside36.14%42.29%48.66%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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