Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Artisan Partners Asset Management Inc. (APAM)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Asset ManagementSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$59.83 - $113.91$81.62
Multi-Stage$54.60 - $59.35$56.93
Blended Fair Value$69.28
Current Price$43.40
Upside59.62%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS1.02%7.09%2.800.003.513.592.872.662.371.851.631.75
YoY Growth--0.00%-100.00%-2.26%25.34%7.88%12.16%28.06%13.55%-6.91%24.19%
Dividend Yield--7.15%0.00%10.98%9.13%5.49%12.36%9.16%5.56%5.90%5.67%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)265.23
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)259.73
(=) Cash Retained (M)5.50
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)53.0533.1519.89
Cash Retained (M)5.505.505.50
(-) Cash Required (M)-53.05-33.15-19.89
(=) Excess Retained (M)-47.55-27.65-14.39
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)70.8370.8370.83
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.67-0.39-0.20
LTM Dividend per Share3.673.673.67
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.67-0.39-0.20
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.003.283.46
WACC / Discount Rate10.08%10.08%10.08%
Growth Rate4.83%5.83%6.83%
Fair Value$59.83$81.62$113.91
Upside / Downside37.87%88.06%162.46%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)265.23280.70297.07314.39332.73352.13362.69
Payout Ratio97.93%96.34%94.76%93.17%91.59%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)259.73270.42281.49292.92304.73316.92335.49

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.08%10.08%10.08%
Growth Rate4.83%5.83%6.83%
Year 1 PV (M)243.34245.66247.98
Year 2 PV (M)227.92232.29236.70
Year 3 PV (M)213.42219.59225.87
Year 4 PV (M)199.79207.52215.48
Year 5 PV (M)186.97196.06205.50
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,795.272,931.163,072.28
Equity Value (M)3,866.714,032.284,203.82
Shares Outstanding (M)70.8370.8370.83
Fair Value$54.60$56.93$59.35
Upside / Downside25.80%31.18%36.76%

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