Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

Valuations

Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Ticker

Industry

Sector

Amgen Inc. (AMGN)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - GeneralSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$408.56 - $1,963.24$724.58
Multi-Stage$305.07 - $333.40$318.97
Blended Fair Value$521.78
Current Price$282.20
Upside84.90%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS6.61%10.07%8.928.417.757.416.936.486.486.215.544.42
YoY Growth--6.06%8.58%4.56%6.87%7.01%0.06%4.22%12.24%25.13%29.44%
Dividend Yield--2.86%2.97%3.21%3.06%2.79%3.20%3.38%3.65%3.37%2.95%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)7,005.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)5,046.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,959.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,401.00875.63525.38
Cash Retained (M)1,959.001,959.001,959.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,401.00-875.63-525.38
(=) Excess Retained (M)558.001,083.381,433.63
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)541.50541.50541.50
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.032.002.65
LTM Dividend per Share9.329.329.32
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.032.002.65
(=) Adjusted Dividend10.3511.3211.97
WACC / Discount Rate7.26%7.26%7.26%
Growth Rate4.61%5.61%6.61%
Fair Value$408.56$724.58$1,963.24
Upside / Downside44.78%156.76%595.69%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)7,005.007,397.827,812.678,250.798,713.479,202.109,478.16
Payout Ratio72.03%75.63%79.22%82.81%86.41%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)5,046.005,594.786,189.246,832.787,529.038,281.898,767.30

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.26%7.26%7.26%
Growth Rate4.61%5.61%6.61%
Year 1 PV (M)5,166.825,216.215,265.61
Year 2 PV (M)5,278.595,380.005,482.37
Year 3 PV (M)5,381.695,537.515,696.31
Year 4 PV (M)5,476.475,688.905,907.45
Year 5 PV (M)5,563.285,834.336,115.83
PV of Terminal Value (M)138,328.44145,067.83152,067.38
Equity Value (M)165,195.29172,724.77180,534.94
Shares Outstanding (M)541.50541.50541.50
Fair Value$305.07$318.97$333.40
Upside / Downside8.10%13.03%18.14%

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