Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Amalgamated Financial Corp. (AMAL)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$103.53 - $465.21$181.13
Multi-Stage$62.78 - $68.67$65.67
Blended Fair Value$123.40
Current Price$27.15
Upside354.51%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS11.39%0.00%0.460.400.360.320.320.270.060.010.000.00
YoY Growth--15.41%10.01%12.36%-0.09%20.31%330.33%389.59%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.61%1.73%2.06%1.80%1.96%2.49%0.41%0.10%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)102.30
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)16.70
(=) Cash Retained (M)85.60
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)20.4612.797.67
Cash Retained (M)85.6085.6085.60
(-) Cash Required (M)-20.46-12.79-7.67
(=) Excess Retained (M)65.1472.8177.93
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)30.7630.7630.76
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.122.372.53
LTM Dividend per Share0.540.540.54
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.122.372.53
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.662.913.08
WACC / Discount Rate8.21%8.21%8.21%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$103.53$181.13$465.21
Upside / Downside281.34%567.16%1,613.49%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)102.30108.95116.03123.57131.60140.16144.36
Payout Ratio16.32%31.06%45.79%60.53%75.26%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)16.7033.8453.1374.8099.05126.14133.53

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.21%8.21%8.21%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)30.9831.2731.56
Year 2 PV (M)44.5345.3846.23
Year 3 PV (M)57.3859.0360.71
Year 4 PV (M)69.5672.2474.99
Year 5 PV (M)81.1085.0289.08
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,647.591,727.171,809.79
Equity Value (M)1,931.132,020.092,112.37
Shares Outstanding (M)30.7630.7630.76
Fair Value$62.78$65.67$68.67
Upside / Downside131.22%141.87%152.91%

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