Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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PT Asuransi Multi Artha Guna Tbk (AMAG.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Insurance - DiversifiedSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2,714.75 - $8,022.12$7,517.85
Multi-Stage$1,169.52 - $1,277.19$1,222.38
Blended Fair Value$4,370.11
Current Price$360.00
Upside1,113.92%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%15.49%30.0120.1450.3450.5030.300.000.008.080.006.71
YoY Growth--49.02%-60.00%-0.31%66.67%0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%-100.00%-5.58%
Dividend Yield--9.09%6.62%13.32%13.02%12.32%0.00%0.00%2.22%0.00%2.08%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)199,903.65
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)198,072.98
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,830.67
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)39,980.7324,987.9614,992.77
Cash Retained (M)1,830.671,830.671,830.67
(-) Cash Required (M)-39,980.73-24,987.96-14,992.77
(=) Excess Retained (M)-38,150.06-23,157.28-13,162.10
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4,952.044,952.044,952.04
(=) Excess Retained per Share-7.70-4.68-2.66
LTM Dividend per Share40.0040.0040.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share-7.70-4.68-2.66
(=) Adjusted Dividend32.2935.3237.34
WACC / Discount Rate6.67%6.67%6.67%
Growth Rate5.42%6.42%7.42%
Fair Value$2,714.75$7,517.85$8,022.12
Upside / Downside654.10%1,988.29%2,128.37%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)199,903.65212,735.30226,390.60240,922.43256,387.05272,844.32281,029.65
Payout Ratio99.08%97.27%95.45%93.63%91.82%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)198,072.98206,922.05216,091.04225,584.56235,406.50245,559.89259,952.43

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.67%6.67%6.67%
Growth Rate5.42%6.42%7.42%
Year 1 PV (M)192,155.18193,977.96195,800.74
Year 2 PV (M)186,349.16189,901.33193,487.03
Year 3 PV (M)180,653.08185,843.01191,131.40
Year 4 PV (M)175,065.18181,802.95188,733.36
Year 5 PV (M)169,583.70177,781.08186,292.43
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,887,686.865,123,948.995,369,260.44
Equity Value (M)5,791,493.176,053,255.316,324,705.39
Shares Outstanding (M)4,952.044,952.044,952.04
Fair Value$1,169.52$1,222.38$1,277.19
Upside / Downside224.87%239.55%254.78%

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