Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

Fundamentals

Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

Valuations

Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

Miscellaneous

Indicators Charts WACC Beta Predictability

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Ticker

Industry

Sector

Antero Midstream Corporation (AM)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas MidstreamSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$7.29 - $10.62$8.90
Multi-Stage$13.48 - $14.75$14.10
Blended Fair Value$11.50
Current Price$19.44
Upside-40.84%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-2.47%0.00%0.900.900.890.971.221.030.180.070.000.00
YoY Growth--0.51%0.59%-8.14%-20.09%18.92%473.43%172.75%0.00%-100.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--5.03%6.36%8.53%8.96%13.50%48.81%1.25%0.41%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)472.42
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)440.20
(=) Cash Retained (M)32.22
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)94.4859.0535.43
Cash Retained (M)32.2232.2232.22
(-) Cash Required (M)-94.48-59.05-35.43
(=) Excess Retained (M)-62.26-26.83-3.21
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)483.69483.69483.69
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.13-0.06-0.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.910.910.91
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.13-0.06-0.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.780.850.90
WACC / Discount Rate8.51%8.51%8.51%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$7.29$8.90$10.62
Upside / Downside-62.51%-54.22%-45.37%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)472.42467.70463.02458.39453.81449.27462.75
Payout Ratio93.18%92.54%91.91%91.27%90.64%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)440.20432.83425.55418.38411.31404.34428.04

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.51%8.51%8.51%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)394.86398.89402.92
Year 2 PV (M)354.18361.44368.78
Year 3 PV (M)317.67327.49337.52
Year 4 PV (M)284.91296.72308.89
Year 5 PV (M)255.52268.82282.68
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,911.935,167.715,434.03
Equity Value (M)6,519.076,821.077,134.81
Shares Outstanding (M)483.69483.69483.69
Fair Value$13.48$14.10$14.75
Upside / Downside-30.67%-27.46%-24.12%

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