Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Alucon Public Company Limited (ALUCON.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: AluminumSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$260.71 - $421.22$332.96
Multi-Stage$545.62 - $600.05$572.31
Blended Fair Value$452.63
Current Price$187.00
Upside142.05%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-4.36%0.00%8.0010.0010.0010.007.5010.0011.0015.0010.0010.00
YoY Growth---20.00%0.00%0.00%33.33%-25.00%-9.09%-26.65%49.97%0.00%25.00%
Dividend Yield--4.43%5.67%5.20%5.13%4.14%8.33%6.16%6.07%3.23%4.55%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,053.59
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)518.40
(=) Cash Retained (M)535.19
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)210.72131.7079.02
Cash Retained (M)535.19535.19535.19
(-) Cash Required (M)-210.72-131.70-79.02
(=) Excess Retained (M)324.47403.49456.17
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)43.2043.2043.20
(=) Excess Retained per Share7.519.3410.56
LTM Dividend per Share12.0012.0012.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share7.519.3410.56
(=) Adjusted Dividend19.5121.3422.56
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate-0.99%0.01%1.01%
Fair Value$260.71$332.96$421.22
Upside / Downside39.41%78.05%125.25%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,053.591,053.661,053.741,053.811,053.891,053.961,085.58
Payout Ratio49.20%57.36%65.52%73.68%81.84%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)518.40604.41690.43776.46862.51948.561,004.16

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate-0.99%0.01%1.01%
Year 1 PV (M)562.28567.96573.64
Year 2 PV (M)597.54609.67621.93
Year 3 PV (M)625.16644.30663.82
Year 4 PV (M)646.04672.54699.84
Year 5 PV (M)660.98695.04730.49
PV of Terminal Value (M)20,477.0621,532.2922,630.57
Equity Value (M)23,569.0624,721.7925,920.29
Shares Outstanding (M)43.2043.2043.20
Fair Value$545.62$572.31$600.05
Upside / Downside191.78%206.05%220.88%

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