Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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PJSC ALROSA-Nyurba (ALNU.ME)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Other Precious MetalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$168,628.44 - $259,122.72$210,791.76
Multi-Stage$374,746.58 - $412,249.90$393,130.80
Blended Fair Value$301,961.28
Current Price$65,400.00
Upside361.71%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2020201920182017201620152014201320122011
DPS0.00%0.00%0.0011,135.507,266.9117,653.9118,833.5515,250.598,942.639,590.7510,470.604,895.30
YoY Growth---100.00%53.24%-58.84%-6.26%23.49%70.54%-6.76%-8.40%113.89%258.39%
Dividend Yield--0.00%23.69%13.02%11.77%11.21%13.03%11.04%14.64%19.14%11.13%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)13,834.82
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)7,593.33
(=) Cash Retained (M)6,241.50
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,766.961,729.351,037.61
Cash Retained (M)6,241.506,241.506,241.50
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,766.96-1,729.35-1,037.61
(=) Excess Retained (M)3,474.534,512.145,203.89
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)0.750.750.75
(=) Excess Retained per Share4,652.816,042.296,968.61
LTM Dividend per Share10,168.3510,168.3510,168.35
(+) Excess Retained per Share4,652.816,042.296,968.61
(=) Adjusted Dividend14,821.1616,210.6417,136.96
WACC / Discount Rate6.61%6.61%6.61%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$168,628.44$210,791.76$259,122.72
Upside / Downside157.84%222.31%296.21%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)13,834.8213,696.4813,559.5113,423.9213,289.6813,156.7813,551.48
Payout Ratio54.89%61.91%68.93%75.95%82.98%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)7,593.338,479.289,346.7610,196.0311,027.3911,841.1012,535.12

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.61%6.61%6.61%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)7,872.967,953.298,033.63
Year 2 PV (M)8,057.848,223.128,390.09
Year 3 PV (M)8,161.468,413.868,671.41
Year 4 PV (M)8,195.748,535.428,885.54
Year 5 PV (M)8,171.218,596.719,039.74
PV of Terminal Value (M)239,386.83251,852.25264,831.64
Equity Value (M)279,846.03293,574.65307,852.05
Shares Outstanding (M)0.750.750.75
Fair Value$374,746.58$393,130.80$412,249.90
Upside / Downside473.01%501.12%530.35%

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