Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Ally Financial Inc. (ALLY)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - Credit ServicesSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$23.06 - $37.49$29.53
Multi-Stage$24.81 - $27.04$25.90
Blended Fair Value$27.71
Current Price$39.20
Upside-29.30%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS6.38%3.33%1.191.181.231.040.930.880.780.590.358.25
YoY Growth--1.09%-4.17%18.52%12.11%5.86%12.81%31.52%70.37%-95.80%859.33%
Dividend Yield--3.27%2.98%4.83%2.39%2.05%6.07%2.74%2.17%1.70%44.07%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)633.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)377.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)256.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)126.6079.1347.48
Cash Retained (M)256.00256.00256.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-126.60-79.13-47.48
(=) Excess Retained (M)129.40176.88208.53
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)311.64311.64311.64
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.420.570.67
LTM Dividend per Share1.211.211.21
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.420.570.67
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.621.781.88
WACC / Discount Rate10.48%10.48%10.48%
Growth Rate3.21%4.21%5.21%
Fair Value$23.06$29.53$37.49
Upside / Downside-41.17%-24.68%-4.37%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)633.00659.64687.41716.35746.50777.92801.26
Payout Ratio59.56%65.65%71.73%77.82%83.91%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)377.00433.03493.11557.48626.40700.13741.17

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.48%10.48%10.48%
Growth Rate3.21%4.21%5.21%
Year 1 PV (M)388.19391.95395.71
Year 2 PV (M)396.26403.98411.77
Year 3 PV (M)401.60413.38425.40
Year 4 PV (M)404.51420.42436.79
Year 5 PV (M)405.30425.32446.12
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,734.296,017.536,311.84
Equity Value (M)7,730.158,072.578,427.63
Shares Outstanding (M)311.64311.64311.64
Fair Value$24.81$25.90$27.04
Upside / Downside-36.72%-33.92%-31.01%

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