Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Fleury Michon S.A. (ALFLE.PA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$173.63 - $287.04$223.89
Multi-Stage$349.31 - $384.63$366.62
Blended Fair Value$295.26
Current Price$25.50
Upside1,057.87%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.97%1.08%1.321.231.221.020.831.261.161.151.221.22
YoY Growth--8.09%0.48%19.24%23.90%-34.59%9.19%0.36%-5.47%0.00%2.37%
Dividend Yield--4.82%6.16%6.66%4.37%2.99%3.99%2.99%2.46%1.89%1.91%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)62.32
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)10.42
(=) Cash Retained (M)51.91
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)12.467.794.67
Cash Retained (M)51.9151.9151.91
(-) Cash Required (M)-12.46-7.79-4.67
(=) Excess Retained (M)39.4444.1247.23
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4.094.094.09
(=) Excess Retained per Share9.6510.8011.56
LTM Dividend per Share2.552.552.55
(+) Excess Retained per Share9.6510.8011.56
(=) Adjusted Dividend12.2013.3514.11
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate-0.67%0.33%1.33%
Fair Value$173.63$223.89$287.04
Upside / Downside580.90%778.01%1,025.66%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)62.3262.5362.7462.9463.1563.3665.26
Payout Ratio16.71%31.37%46.03%60.69%75.34%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)10.4219.6228.8838.2047.5857.0260.36

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate-0.67%0.33%1.33%
Year 1 PV (M)18.2718.4518.64
Year 2 PV (M)25.0425.5526.06
Year 3 PV (M)30.8531.7932.75
Year 4 PV (M)35.7937.2538.76
Year 5 PV (M)39.9441.9944.13
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,277.481,343.091,411.37
Equity Value (M)1,427.371,498.131,571.71
Shares Outstanding (M)4.094.094.09
Fair Value$349.31$366.62$384.63
Upside / Downside1,269.83%1,337.74%1,408.35%

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