Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Ticker

Industry

Sector

PT AKR Corporindo Tbk (AKRA.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas Refining & MarketingSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$10,675.80 - $24,212.42$22,690.58
Multi-Stage$3,715.83 - $4,061.19$3,885.36
Blended Fair Value$13,287.97
Current Price$1,210.00
Upside998.18%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS22.26%22.77%99.88124.8541.9526.9719.9936.5744.7030.3618.1725.92
YoY Growth---20.00%197.62%55.56%34.90%-45.33%-18.18%47.20%67.08%-29.88%101.86%
Dividend Yield--9.12%7.30%2.71%2.96%3.10%9.26%4.70%2.68%1.45%1.86%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,405,838.14
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,977,629.46
(=) Cash Retained (M)428,208.68
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)481,167.63300,729.77180,437.86
Cash Retained (M)428,208.68428,208.68428,208.68
(-) Cash Required (M)-481,167.63-300,729.77-180,437.86
(=) Excess Retained (M)-52,958.95127,478.91247,770.82
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)19,760.9819,760.9819,760.98
(=) Excess Retained per Share-2.686.4512.54
LTM Dividend per Share100.08100.08100.08
(+) Excess Retained per Share-2.686.4512.54
(=) Adjusted Dividend97.40106.53112.62
WACC / Discount Rate6.46%6.46%6.46%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$10,675.80$22,690.58$24,212.42
Upside / Downside782.30%1,775.25%1,901.03%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,405,838.142,562,217.612,728,761.762,906,131.273,095,029.813,296,206.743,395,092.95
Payout Ratio82.20%83.76%85.32%86.88%88.44%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,977,629.462,146,139.472,328,200.302,524,861.592,737,252.212,966,586.073,140,460.98

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.46%6.46%6.46%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,996,935.972,015,864.282,034,792.58
Year 2 PV (M)2,015,731.752,054,125.782,092,882.02
Year 3 PV (M)2,034,024.462,092,413.992,151,910.41
Year 4 PV (M)2,051,821.662,130,728.932,211,890.52
Year 5 PV (M)2,069,130.802,169,070.592,272,835.31
PV of Terminal Value (M)63,260,820.7266,316,342.0169,488,805.30
Equity Value (M)73,428,465.3676,778,545.5880,253,116.14
Shares Outstanding (M)19,760.9819,760.9819,760.98
Fair Value$3,715.83$3,885.36$4,061.19
Upside / Downside207.09%221.10%235.64%

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