Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Assurant, Inc. 5.25% Subordinat (AIZN)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Insurance - DiversifiedSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$306.58 - $663.40$438.38
Multi-Stage$369.59 - $405.61$387.26
Blended Fair Value$412.82
Current Price$216.60
Upside90.59%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.59%7.24%3.022.952.913.052.992.932.592.302.431.82
YoY Growth--2.36%1.40%-4.70%1.94%2.11%13.15%12.44%-5.06%33.11%21.51%
Dividend Yield--1.44%1.57%2.42%1.68%2.11%2.81%2.69%2.52%2.54%2.36%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)848.80
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)165.30
(=) Cash Retained (M)683.50
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)169.76106.1063.66
Cash Retained (M)683.50683.50683.50
(-) Cash Required (M)-169.76-106.10-63.66
(=) Excess Retained (M)513.74577.40619.84
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)51.6751.6751.67
(=) Excess Retained per Share9.9411.1711.99
LTM Dividend per Share3.203.203.20
(+) Excess Retained per Share9.9411.1711.99
(=) Adjusted Dividend13.1414.3715.19
WACC / Discount Rate6.90%6.90%6.90%
Growth Rate2.50%3.50%4.50%
Fair Value$306.58$438.38$663.40
Upside / Downside41.54%102.39%206.28%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)848.80878.53909.31941.16974.131,008.251,038.50
Payout Ratio19.47%33.58%47.68%61.79%75.89%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)165.30295.01433.60581.54739.31907.42960.61

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.90%6.90%6.90%
Growth Rate2.50%3.50%4.50%
Year 1 PV (M)273.31275.98278.64
Year 2 PV (M)372.16379.46386.83
Year 3 PV (M)462.43476.09490.03
Year 4 PV (M)544.64566.21588.41
Year 5 PV (M)619.32650.12682.14
PV of Terminal Value (M)16,826.6817,663.6418,533.58
Equity Value (M)19,098.5420,011.5020,959.63
Shares Outstanding (M)51.6751.6751.67
Fair Value$369.59$387.26$405.61
Upside / Downside70.63%78.79%87.26%

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